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Enugu Rangers vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
2/18/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 20Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Enugu Rangers58%
×Draw27%
Akwa United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.45
Akwa United
0.59

Enugu Rangers creates 146% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 111 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
85%
Enugu Rangers or Akwa United
73%
Draw or Akwa United
42%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
30%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
42%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
18%
Akwa United 1+ goals
45%
Akwa United 2+ goals
12%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
79%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
58%
level
27%
Akwa United scores more
15%

Enugu Rangers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enugu Rangers 1–0 Akwa United

Enugu Rangers beat Akwa United 1-0 in NPFL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.