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Akwa United vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
10/21/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 8Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Akwa United54%
×Draw28%
Enugu Rangers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.38
Enugu Rangers
0.66

Akwa United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
82%
Akwa United or Enugu Rangers
72%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
46%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
27%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
75%
Akwa United 2+ goals
40%
Akwa United 3+ goals
16%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
48%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
14%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
75%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Akwa United scores more
54%
level
28%
Enugu Rangers scores more
18%

Akwa United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akwa United vs Enugu Rangers

Akwa United and Enugu Rangers drew 0-0 in NPFL on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo.