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Enugu Rangers vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
E. Chinonso 85'
3/14/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 15Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Enugu Rangers76%
×Draw18%
Adamawa United6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.98
Adamawa United
0.38

Enugu Rangers creates 421% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 31 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
94%
Enugu Rangers or Adamawa United
82%
Draw or Adamawa United
24%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
49%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
59%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
31%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
32%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
6%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
93%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.98

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
76%
level
18%
Adamawa United scores more
6%

Enugu Rangers at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
S. Nnenna
52'
62'
M. Saleh
85'
E. Chinonso
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enugu Rangers vs Adamawa United

Enugu Rangers beat Adamawa United 1-0 in NPFL on March 14, 2021.

Goals: E. Chinonso (85').

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.