Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adamawa United vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
1 – 1
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
L. Sadiq 74'
D. Madaki 57'
11/10/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 2Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United40%
×Draw32%
Enugu Rangers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.03
Enugu Rangers
0.81

Adamawa United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 130 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
72%
Adamawa United or Enugu Rangers
68%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
60%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
16%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
64%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
28%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
9%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
56%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
19%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
59%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adamawa United scores more
40%
level
32%
Enugu Rangers scores more
28%

Adamawa United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
D. Madaki← D. Madaki
49'
L. Sadiq← L. Sadiq
57'
D. Madaki
65'
M. Seidu
73'
C. Madu← C. Madu
74'
L. Sadiq

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 1–1 Enugu Rangers

Adamawa United and Enugu Rangers drew 1-1 in NPFL on November 10, 2019.

Goals: D. Madaki (57'), L. Sadiq (74').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.