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Entebbe UPPC vs Buhimba Saints — Premier League 2019

Entebbe UPPC
Entebbe UPPC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
9/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Bugonga Football Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Entebbe UPPC71%
×Draw20%
Buhimba Saints9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Entebbe UPPC
1.93
Buhimba Saints
0.52

Entebbe UPPC creates 271% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Entebbe UPPC
1.00
Buhimba Saints
0.50

allows per match

Entebbe UPPC
0.53
Buhimba Saints
2.86

finishing

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par
Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Entebbe UPPC ↓

Buhimba Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Entebbe UPPC or draw
91%
Entebbe UPPC or Buhimba Saints
80%
Draw or Buhimba Saints
29%

Winning margin

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+
44%
Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals
85%
Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals
57%
Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals
30%
Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
41%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
10%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)
89%
Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Entebbe UPPC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Buhimba Saints away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Buhimba Saints defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Buhimba Saints attack 0.50 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Entebbe UPPC scores more
71%
level
20%
Buhimba Saints scores more
9%

Entebbe UPPC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Entebbe UPPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Entebbe UPPC vs Buhimba Saints

Buhimba Saints beat Entebbe UPPC 1-0 in Premier League on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Bugonga Football Pitch.