Buhimba Saints 1–2 Entebbe UPPC: Result & Stats

Buhimba Saints

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Entebbe UPPC

4/16/2026

Premier League · Round 23The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Buhimba Saints21%

×Draw29%

Entebbe UPPC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buhimba SaintsExpected goals in this matchEntebbe UPPC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.27

Buhimba Saints

0.70

Entebbe UPPC

1.27

Entebbe UPPC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.60

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Buhimba Saints

0.60

Entebbe UPPC

1.00

allows per match

Buhimba Saints

1.53

Entebbe UPPC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buhimba Saints ↓

Entebbe UPPC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–118%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Buhimba Saints or draw

50%

Buhimba Saints or Entebbe UPPC

71%

Draw or Entebbe UPPC

79%

Winning margin

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+

6%

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals

50%

Buhimba Saints 2+ goals

16%

Buhimba Saints 3+ goals

3%

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals

72%

Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals

36%

Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)

29%

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buhimba Saints at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buhimba Saints attack 0.60 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Buhimba Saints defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buhimba Saints scores more

21%

level

29%

Entebbe UPPC scores more

50%

Entebbe UPPC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Entebbe UPPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff