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Enskede vs Arlanda — Svenska Cupen 2019

Enskede
Enskede
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arlanda
Arlanda
5/22/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundEnskede IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Enskede15%
×Draw18%
Arlanda67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enskede
1.00
Arlanda
2.33

Arlanda creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Enskede
1.00
Arlanda
1.00

allows per match

Enskede
3.67
Arlanda
1.00

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par
Arlanda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Arlanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Enskede or draw
33%
Enskede or Arlanda
82%
Draw or Arlanda
85%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+
5%
Arlanda wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals
63%
Enskede 2+ goals
26%
Enskede 3+ goals
8%
Arlanda 1+ goals
90%
Arlanda 2+ goals
67%
Arlanda 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)
18%
Arlanda (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Arlanda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 1.00 + Arlanda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Arlanda attack 1.00 + Enskede defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Enskede scores more
15%
level
18%
Arlanda scores more
67%

Arlanda at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Arlanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Enskede 1–0 Arlanda

Enskede beat Arlanda 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Enskede IP 1 in Stockholm.