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Arlanda vs Enskede — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Arlanda
Arlanda
FT
1 – 2
Enskede
Enskede
6/19/2021Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 15Midgårdsvallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Arlanda43%
×Draw22%
Enskede35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arlanda
1.85
Enskede
1.64

Arlanda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 41 away

creates per match

Arlanda
2.08
Enskede
1.73

allows per match

Arlanda
1.55
Enskede
1.63

finishing

Arlanda+0.00on par
Enskede+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arlanda ↓

Enskede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Arlanda or draw
65%
Arlanda or Enskede
78%
Draw or Enskede
57%

Winning margin

Arlanda wins by 2+
23%
Enskede wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arlanda 1+ goals
84%
Arlanda 2+ goals
55%
Arlanda 3+ goals
28%
Enskede 1+ goals
81%
Enskede 2+ goals
49%
Enskede 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arlanda (draw refunded)
55%
Enskede (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arlanda at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.55 · 40 matches

Enskede away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arlanda attack 2.08 + Enskede defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.85

Enskede attack 1.73 + Arlanda defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arlanda scores more
43%
level
22%
Enskede scores more
35%

Arlanda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arlanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arlanda vs Enskede

Enskede beat Arlanda 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Midgårdsvallen Konstgräs in Märsta.