Enppi 1–1 Ceramica Cleopatra: Result & Stats

Enppi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ceramica Cleopatra

4/11/2026

Premier League · Championship Group - 2Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Enppi36%

×Draw30%

Ceramica Cleopatra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnppiExpected goals in this matchCeramica Cleopatra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Enppi

1.09

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 93 away

1.02

creates per match

1.12

0.99

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Enppi

1.02

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

allows per match

Enppi

0.99

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enppi+0.00on par

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enppi ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Enppi or draw

66%

Enppi or Ceramica Cleopatra

70%

Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra

64%

Winning margin

Enppi wins by 2+

14%

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Enppi 1+ goals

66%

Enppi 2+ goals

30%

Enppi 3+ goals

10%

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

65%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

29%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Enppi (draw refunded)

51%

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enppi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enppi attack 1.02 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Enppi defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Enppi scores more

36%

level

30%

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

34%

Enppi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff