Enosis 1–3 Olympiakos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Enosis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos

D. Imeri 90' (pen)

A. Bajrovic 88'

V. Kovalenko 84'

Jean Felipe 40'

4/4/2026

1. Division · Relegation Group - 28Paralimni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Enosis35%

×Draw29%

Olympiakos35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnosisExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

Enosis

1.09

Olympiakos

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.92

creates per match

0.77

1.41

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Enosis

0.92

Olympiakos

0.77

allows per match

Enosis

1.41

Olympiakos

1.27

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Enosis+0.22scores more

Olympiakos+0.40scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enosis ↓

Olympiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Enosis or draw

65%

Enosis or Olympiakos

71%

Draw or Olympiakos

65%

Winning margin

Enosis wins by 2+

14%

Olympiakos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Enosis 1+ goals

66%

Enosis 2+ goals

30%

Enosis 3+ goals

10%

Olympiakos 1+ goals

66%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

30%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Enosis (draw refunded)

50%

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enosis at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enosis attack 0.92 + Olympiakos defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Olympiakos attack 0.77 + Enosis defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Enosis scores more

35%

level

29%

Olympiakos scores more

35%

Enosis at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Enosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Jean Felipe

Olympiakos · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

13'

17'

40'

46'

M. Simonovski← D. Solomou

46'

S. Solomou← C. Kyzas

46'

D. Imeri← L. Kosmas

66'

Alen Kozar

73'

R. Moreira← M. Charalampous

73'

G. Tocka← C. Wheeler

74'

Emmanuel Okeke

75'

A. Ella← G. Kurez

76'

Henrique Gomes

80'

Stefanos Charalampous

83'

V. Kovalenko← H. Gomes

83'

R. Injgia← S. Charalampous

84'

V. Kovalenko

87'

E. Sakic← J. Okeke

87'

A. Bajrovic← I. Pikis

88'

A. Bajrovic

90'

D. ImeriPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnosisOlympiakos

Overview

31%Possession69%

3Total Shots10

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.52

0Corners6

16Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots10

1On Target3

2Off Target6

0Blocked1

1Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

31%Possession69%

223Total Passes556

167Accurate Passes493

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0