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Enosis vs Olympiakos — 1. Division 2019

Enosis
Enosis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympiakos
Olympiakos
K. Diawara 90+1' (pen)
J. Lamy 50'
A. Katsiaris 40'
5/12/20231. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 11Stadio Tasos Markou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Enosis35%
×Draw29%
Olympiakos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enosis
1.09
Olympiakos
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Enosis
0.92
Olympiakos
0.77

allows per match

Enosis
1.41
Olympiakos
1.27

finishing

Enosis+0.22scores more
Olympiakos+0.40scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enosis ↓

Olympiakos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enosis or draw
65%
Enosis or Olympiakos
71%
Draw or Olympiakos
65%

Winning margin

Enosis wins by 2+
14%
Olympiakos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Enosis 1+ goals
66%
Enosis 2+ goals
30%
Enosis 3+ goals
10%
Olympiakos 1+ goals
66%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
30%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Enosis (draw refunded)
50%
Olympiakos (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enosis at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enosis attack 0.92 + Olympiakos defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Olympiakos attack 0.77 + Enosis defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Enosis scores more
35%
level
29%
Olympiakos scores more
35%

Enosis at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Enosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Antonis Katsiaris
30'
Toni Gorupec
38'
Michalis Christodoulou
40'
A. Katsiaris
42'
M. Pechlivanis← T. Ioannou
50'
J. Lamy
53'
S. Hendriks← A. Zefki
53'
O. Koroma← M. Christodoulou
58'
A. Lucero← F. Kotsónis
58'
K. Diawara← Víctor Fernández
67'
O. Roushias← A. Vucenovic
67'
Márcio Meira← J. Lamy
81'
P. Polycarpou← A. Katsiaris
84'
M. Dimitriou← T. Gorupec
84'
S. Kaiafas← S. Charalambous
89'
Sotiris Kaiafas
89'
Marios Pechlivanis
90+4'
Lewis Enoh
90+1'
K. DiawaraPenalty

Shots

7Enosis

Statistics

EnosisOlympiakos
Overview
7Total Shots7
1Corners7
15Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots7
3On Target3
4Off Target3
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

1. Division: Enosis 3–0 Olympiakos

Enosis beat Olympiakos 3-0 in 1. Division on May 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Katsiaris (40'), J. Lamy (50'), K. Diawara (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Tasos Markou in Paralímni.