Enosis 2–2 Anorthosis: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Enosis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Anorthosis

Z. Museliani 90+3' (pen)

S. Thandi 81'

1 Sérgio Conceição 90+11' (pen)

G. Krychowiak 45+5'

2/24/2025

1. Division · Round 24Stadio Tasos Markou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Enosis36%

×Draw28%

Anorthosis36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnosisExpected goals in this matchAnorthosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.14

Enosis

1.15

Anorthosis

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.92

creates per match

0.87

1.41

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Enosis

0.92

Anorthosis

0.87

allows per match

Enosis

1.41

Anorthosis

1.38

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Enosis+0.22scores more

Anorthosis+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enosis ↓

Anorthosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Enosis or draw

64%

Enosis or Anorthosis

72%

Draw or Anorthosis

64%

Winning margin

Enosis wins by 2+

15%

Anorthosis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Enosis 1+ goals

68%

Enosis 2+ goals

32%

Enosis 3+ goals

11%

Anorthosis 1+ goals

68%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

32%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Enosis (draw refunded)

50%

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enosis at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enosis attack 0.92 + Anorthosis defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Anorthosis attack 0.87 + Enosis defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Enosis scores more

36%

level

28%

Anorthosis scores more

36%

Enosis at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Enosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

R. Hoogenhout← Rodrigo Souza

34'

Niv Fliter

41'

K. Chrysopoulos← M. Ioannou

45+5'

G. Krychowiak

53'

Giannis Kargas

58'

Marco Krainz

62'

Á. Gyurcsó← D. Theodorou

72'

S. Seedorf← E. Andreou

72'

M. Charalambous← P. Janczukowicz

81'

E. Sam← N. Gotlieb

81'

S. Thandi

84'

S. Charalambous← G. Krychowiak

84'

K. Stamoulis← D. Paroutis

84'

E. Charalampous← A. Iliev

89'

Elisha Sam

90+2'

André Teixeira

90+3'

Z. MuselianiPenalty

90+11'

1 Sérgio ConceiçãoPenalty

Enosis5-4-1

Anorthosis5-4-1

9

▼

Iliev

17

▼

Paroutis

20

⚽

▼

Krychowia

48

▼

Ioannou

7

▼

5

30

42

6

35

⚽

Conceição

12

Živković

24

Adeleye

94

▼

Souza

2

⚽

6

3

27

28

▼

Andreou

23

Krainz

30

⚽

Museliani

10

▼

Gotlieb

29

▼

Janczukow

Manager: D. Čanadi

24'▲R. Hoogenhout←▼Rodrigo Souza

72'▲S. Seedorf←▼E. Andreou

72'▲M. Charalambous←▼P. Janczukowicz

81'▲E. Sam←▼N. Gotlieb

Enosis substitutes

87Hoogenhout17Seedorf99Charalambous19Sam5Milićević8Mavroudis11Canadi13Stylianides14Kosma40Solomou79Panagi80Silva

Manager: M. Camoranesi

41'▲K. Chrysopoulos←▼M. Ioannou

62'▲Á. Gyurcsó←▼D. Theodorou

84'▲S. Charalambous←▼G. Krychowiak

84'▲K. Stamoulis←▼D. Paroutis

84'▲E. Charalampous←▼A. Iliev

Anorthosis substitutes

16Chrysopoulos25Gyurcsó18Charalambous22Stamoulis57Charalampous3García15Mugabi51Panagi55Ioannou99Keravnos