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Anorthosis vs Enosis — 1. Division 2019

Anorthosis
Anorthosis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Enosis
Enosis
E. Charalampous 44'
P. Janczukowicz 51', 14'
5/5/20251. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 6Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Anorthosis61%
×Draw22%
Enosis17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anorthosis
1.90
Enosis
0.89

Anorthosis creates 113% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Anorthosis
1.45
Enosis
0.58

allows per match

Anorthosis
1.19
Enosis
2.35

finishing

Anorthosis+0.13scores more
Enosis-0.18scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Enosis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw
83%
Anorthosis or Enosis
78%
Draw or Enosis
39%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+
36%
Enosis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals
85%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
56%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
29%
Enosis 1+ goals
59%
Enosis 2+ goals
22%
Enosis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)
78%
Enosis (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.19 · 12 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.35 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.45 + Enosis defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.90

Enosis attack 0.58 + Anorthosis defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Anorthosis scores more
61%
level
22%
Enosis scores more
17%

Anorthosis at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
KikoAnorthosisAnorthosis · D
8.3

Match Events

14'
P. Janczukowicz
38'
Edson Silva
44'
E. Charalampous
46'
S. Charalambous← A. Roguljić
51'
P. Janczukowicz
63'
D. Theodorou← K. Stamoulis
67'
A. Christofi← Edson Silva
70'
A. Iliev← E. Charalampous
70'
G. Ioannou← D. Paroutis
75'
E. Sam← M. Charalambous
79'
M. Špoljarić← B. Mlađović
88'
Ruben Hoogenhout
90'
I. Milićević← R. Hoogenhout
90'
N. Gotlieb← Z. Museliani
90'
D. Solomou← P. Janczukowicz

Possession

67%Anorthosis

Shots

16Anorthosis

Pass accuracy

54%Anorthosis

Statistics

AnorthosisEnosis
Overview
67%Possession33%
16Total Shots4
1.45Expected Goals (xG)0.35
9Corners1
10Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots4
7On Target3
3Off Target1
6Blocked0
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
650Total Passes244
581Accurate Passes186
89%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Anorthosis vs Enosis

Enosis beat Anorthosis 2-1 in 1. Division on May 5, 2025.

Goals: P. Janczukowicz (14', 51'), E. Charalampous (44').

Anorthosis controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos in Larnaca.