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Ennepetal vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
5/20/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Ennepetal33%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.54
Preußen Münster II
1.80

Preußen Münster II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
56%
Ennepetal or Preußen Münster II
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
67%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
16%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
79%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
45%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
20%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
54%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
43%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ennepetal scores more
33%
level
23%
Preußen Münster II scores more
44%

Preußen Münster II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ennepetal vs Preußen Münster II

Preußen Münster II beat Ennepetal 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.