Ennepetal 2–1 Delbrücker SC: Result & Stats

Ennepetal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Delbrücker SC

9/18/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Reichenbach Gymnasium Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ennepetal50%

×Draw21%

Delbrücker SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnnepetalExpected goals in this matchDelbrücker SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.65

Ennepetal

2.17

Delbrücker SC

1.65

Ennepetal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

1.41

1.88

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Ennepetal

1.57

Delbrücker SC

1.41

allows per match

Ennepetal

1.88

Delbrücker SC

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Delbrücker SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw

70%

Ennepetal or Delbrücker SC

79%

Draw or Delbrücker SC

50%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+

29%

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals

89%

Ennepetal 2+ goals

64%

Ennepetal 3+ goals

36%

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

81%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

49%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)

63%

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.17

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ennepetal scores more

50%

level

21%

Delbrücker SC scores more

30%

Ennepetal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff