Delbrücker SC 1–1 Ennepetal: Result & Stats

Delbrücker SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ennepetal

3/19/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC46%

×Draw23%

Ennepetal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delbrücker SCExpected goals in this matchEnnepetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.37

Delbrücker SC

1.75

Ennepetal

1.37

Delbrücker SC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

1.35

creates per match

1.33

1.41

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Delbrücker SC

1.35

Ennepetal

1.33

allows per match

Delbrücker SC

1.41

Ennepetal

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Ennepetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw

70%

Delbrücker SC or Ennepetal

77%

Draw or Ennepetal

54%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

25%

Ennepetal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

83%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

52%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

25%

Ennepetal 1+ goals

75%

Ennepetal 2+ goals

40%

Ennepetal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

61%

Ennepetal (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more

46%

level

23%

Ennepetal scores more

30%

Delbrücker SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Delbrücker SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff