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Enisey vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
5/22/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Tsentralnyi Stadion
40%
Enisey
model favours
40%27%32%

Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Enisey40%
×Draw27%
Spartak Kostroma32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.29
Spartak Kostroma
1.12

Enisey creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Enisey
0.71
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
68%
Enisey or Spartak Kostroma
73%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
60%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
72%
Enisey 2+ goals
37%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
67%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
31%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
56%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.18 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Enisey defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Enisey scores more
40%
level
27%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
32%

Enisey at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Spartak Kostroma

May 22, 2027: Enisey take on Spartak Kostroma in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Spartak Kostroma at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.