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Enisey vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
16:00
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
3/6/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Tsentralnyi Stadion
48%
Enisey
model favours
48%29%23%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Enisey48%
×Draw29%
Ska-khabarovsk23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.30
Ska-khabarovsk
0.81

Enisey creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.18
Ska-khabarovsk
0.91

allows per match

Enisey
0.71
Ska-khabarovsk
1.43

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
77%
Enisey or Ska-khabarovsk
71%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
52%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
22%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
73%
Enisey 2+ goals
37%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
56%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
19%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
67%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.18 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.91 + Enisey defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Enisey scores more
48%
level
29%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
23%

Enisey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Enisey sit 6, Ska-khabarovsk 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Ska-khabarovsk

March 6, 2027: Enisey take on Ska-khabarovsk in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Ska-khabarovsk at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.