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Enisey vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
16:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
38%
Enisey
model favours
38%31%31%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Enisey38%
×Draw31%
Rotor Volgograd31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.04
Rotor Volgograd
0.92

Enisey creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.14
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

allows per match

Enisey
0.70
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
69%
Enisey or Rotor Volgograd
69%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
62%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
15%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
65%
Enisey 2+ goals
28%
Enisey 3+ goals
9%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
60%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
23%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
55%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.70 · 43 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.14 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Enisey defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Enisey scores more
38%
level
31%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
31%

Enisey at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Rotor Volgograd

March 13, 2027: Enisey take on Rotor Volgograd in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Rotor Volgograd at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.