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Enisey vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/9/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Enisey42%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.25
Rotor Volgograd
1.02

Enisey creates 23% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 87 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.52
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Enisey
0.99
Rotor Volgograd
0.97

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
70%
Enisey or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
58%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
18%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
71%
Enisey 2+ goals
36%
Enisey 3+ goals
13%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
64%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
27%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
58%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.52 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Enisey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Enisey scores more
42%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
30%

Enisey at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Enisey 1–1 Rotor Volgograd

Enisey and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.