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Enisey vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Tsentralnyi Stadion
42%
Enisey
model favours
42%28%30%

Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Enisey42%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.27
Nizhny Novgorod
1.02

Enisey creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 3 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.20
Nizhny Novgorod
1.33

allows per match

Enisey
0.70
Nizhny Novgorod
1.33

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
70%
Enisey or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
58%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
19%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
72%
Enisey 2+ goals
36%
Enisey 3+ goals
14%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
64%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
27%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
59%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 44 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.20 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.33 + Enisey defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Enisey scores more
42%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
30%

Enisey at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Nizhny Novgorod

May 1, 2027: Enisey take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Nizhny Novgorod at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.