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Enisey vs Khimki — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
11/9/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Enisey40%
×Draw27%
Khimki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.34
Khimki
1.19

Enisey creates 13% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 51 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.50
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Enisey
1.00
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
67%
Enisey or Khimki
73%
Draw or Khimki
60%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
18%
Khimki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
74%
Enisey 2+ goals
39%
Enisey 3+ goals
15%
Khimki 1+ goals
70%
Khimki 2+ goals
33%
Khimki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
55%
Khimki (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.50 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Khimki attack 1.39 + Enisey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Enisey scores more
40%
level
27%
Khimki scores more
33%

Enisey at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enisey vs Khimki

Enisey beat Khimki 1-0 in First League on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.