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Enisey vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
5/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Enisey31%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moscow43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.16
Dinamo Moscow
1.42

Dinamo Moscow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 120 away

creates per match

Enisey
0.94
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Enisey
1.44
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
57%
Enisey or Dinamo Moscow
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
69%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
69%
Enisey 2+ goals
32%
Enisey 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 0.94 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Enisey scores more
31%
level
26%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
43%

Dinamo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Enisey 2–2 Dinamo Moscow

Enisey and Dinamo Moscow drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Central Stadium in Krasnoyarsk.