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Dinamo Moscow vs Enisey — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Enisey
Enisey
11/24/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Moscow63%
×Draw21%
Enisey15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.92
Enisey
0.81

Dinamo Moscow creates 137% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.64
Enisey
0.56

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.06
Enisey
2.19

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
85%
Dinamo Moscow or Enisey
79%
Draw or Enisey
37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
38%
Enisey wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
57%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
30%
Enisey 1+ goals
56%
Enisey 2+ goals
19%
Enisey 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
81%
Enisey (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

Enisey away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + Enisey defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Enisey attack 0.56 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
63%
level
21%
Enisey scores more
15%

Dinamo Moscow at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Enisey

Enisey beat Dinamo Moscow 2-1 in Premier League on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.