Enisey 4–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

V. Stezhko 64'

A. Okladnikov 26'

A. Lomakin 22'

A. Mazurin 10'

I. Mashukov 85'

4/13/2024

First League · Round 27Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Enisey44%

×Draw26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

Enisey

1.43

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.11

Enisey creates 29% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 70 away

1.52

creates per match

1.24

0.99

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Enisey

1.52

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Enisey

0.99

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

71%

Enisey or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

74%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

56%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

21%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

76%

Enisey 2+ goals

42%

Enisey 3+ goals

17%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

67%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

30%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

60%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.52 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Enisey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Enisey scores more

44%

level

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

29%

Enisey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Mazurin

22'

A. Lomakin

26'

A. Okladnikov

46'

S. Kachmazov← D. Shavlokhov

46'

B. Gurtsiev← T. Gagloev

46'

A. Tsaraev← Z. Tarba

64'

V. Stezhko

74'

V. Kichin← A. Maslovskiy

74'

M. Savelyev← A. Okladnikov

81'

B. Khadartsev← A. Chochiev

81'

E. Gubiev← A. Khabalov

84'

S. Saaduev← A. Mazurin

84'

N. Markov← V. Bardybakhin

84'

V. Khozin← V. Stezhko

85'

I. Mashukov

90+3'

Batraz Gurtsiev

Statistics

EniseyAlaniya

Discipline

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0