Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Enisey: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Enisey

A. Gilyazetdinov 59'

8/10/2024

First League · Round 5Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz45%

×Draw26%

Enisey29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.50

Enisey

1.14

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 126 away

1.57

creates per match

1.03

1.24

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Enisey

1.03

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Enisey

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

71%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Enisey

74%

Draw or Enisey

55%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

23%

Enisey wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

78%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

44%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

19%

Enisey 1+ goals

68%

Enisey 2+ goals

32%

Enisey 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

61%

Enisey (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.42 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Enisey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Enisey attack 1.03 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

45%

level

26%

Enisey scores more

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Grigoryev← T. Shipunov

59'

A. Gilyazetdinov

61'

N. Abdokov← A. Chochiev

63'

Andrea Chukanov

69'

A. Khugaev← S. Makarov

69'

E. Gubiev← A. Butaev

69'

D. Kokoev← P. Dolgov

79'

Denis Samoilov

79'

A. Dryaev← T. Gagloev

87'

I. Molteninov← M. Savelyev

87'

A. Mazurin← A. Gilyazetdinov

90+2'

Andrey Mazurin

Alaniya3-4-2-1

Enisey3-5-2

9

▼

Savelyev

10

▼

33

7

88

8

43

⚽

▼

3

96

12

1

1

3

5

2

22

15

27

▼

Makarov

19

▼

Butaev

11

▼

Chochiev

37

▼

Gagloev

91

▼

Dolgov

Manager: S. Tazabaev

61'▲N. Abdokov←▼A. Chochiev

69'▲A. Khugaev←▼S. Makarov

69'▲E. Gubiev←▼A. Butaev

69'▲D. Kokoev←▼P. Dolgov

79'▲A. Dryaev←▼T. Gagloev

Alaniya Vladikavkaz substitutes

9Abdokov8Khugaev12Gubiev77Kokoev61Dryaev6Tarba13Zaseev14Chimezie23Natabashvili70Daurov76Nafikov

Manager: A. Tikhonov

14'▲D. Grigoryev←▼T. Shipunov

87'▲I. Molteninov←▼M. Savelyev

87'▲A. Mazurin←▼A. Gilyazetdinov

Enisey substitutes

13Grigoryev28Molteninov87Mazurin4Denisov18Nadolskiy20Laykin50Shamov

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Enisey

Enisey beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-0 in First League on August 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Gilyazetdinov (59').

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Enisey — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Enisey