Enisey 1–1 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

V. Kichin 81' (pen)

M. Mohammadi 69'

12/1/2018

Premier League · Round 16Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Enisey36%

×Draw27%

Akhmat Grozny37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Enisey

1.21

Akhmat Grozny

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 121 away

0.94

creates per match

1.01

1.44

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Enisey

0.94

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Enisey

1.44

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

63%

Enisey or Akhmat Grozny

73%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

64%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

15%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

70%

Enisey 2+ goals

34%

Enisey 3+ goals

12%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

71%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

35%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

49%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 0.94 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Enisey scores more

36%

level

27%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

37%

Akhmat Grozny at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

V. Kichin

Enisey · D

7.7

Match Events

30'

Andrey Semenov

33'

Mikhail Gashchenkov

36'

Fegor Ogude

46'

P. Komolov← A. Kutjin

68'

D. Torbinski← A. Fatullaev

69'

M. Mohammadi↳ Z. Pliev

70'

B. Berisha← M. Mitrishev

75'

D. Bodul← D. Yatchenko

78'

Rodolfo← I. Doumbia

81'

Rodolfo

81'

V. KichinPenalty

82'

B. Balaj← A. Mbengue

90'

Mikhail Komkov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EniseyAkhmat

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots7

3Corners2

18Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target2

6Off Target1

5Blocked4

9Inside Box1

5Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

485Total Passes344

380Accurate Passes231

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1