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England vs Germany — UEFA Nations League 2018

England
England
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Germany
Germany
H. Kane 83' (pen)
M. Mount 75'
L. Shaw 71'
K. Havertz 87', 67'
İ. Gündoğan 52' (pen)
9/26/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League A - 6Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England51%
×Draw23%
Germany27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.87
Germany
1.30

England creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

England
1.82
Germany
1.33

allows per match

England
1.27
Germany
1.92

finishing

England+0.00on par
Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Germany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

England or draw
73%
England or Germany
77%
Draw or Germany
49%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
28%
Germany wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
85%
England 2+ goals
56%
England 3+ goals
29%
Germany 1+ goals
73%
Germany 2+ goals
37%
Germany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
65%
Germany (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Germany away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Germany defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.87

Germany attack 1.33 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

England scores more
51%
level
23%
Germany scores more
27%

England at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. HavertzGermanyGermany · F
8.3

Match Events

37'
K. Walker← J. Stones
46'
T. Werner← J. Hofmann
51'
Jamal MusialaPenalty confirmed
52'
İ. GündoğanPenalty
66'
B. Saka← P. Foden
66'
M. Mount← R. Sterling
67'
K. Havertz↳ T. Werner
68'
S. Gnabry← L. Sané
68'
R. Gosens← D. Raum
71'
L. Shaw↳ R. James
75'
M. Mount↳ B. Saka
79'
T. Müller← J. Musiala
82'
Jude BellinghamPenalty confirmed
82'
Thilo Kehrer
82'
Nico Schlotterbeck
83'
H. KanePenalty
87'
K. Havertz
90+1'
J. Henderson← J. Bellingham
90+1'
A. Bella-Kotchap← K. Havertz

Possession

41%England

Shots

13England

Pass accuracy

48%England

Statistics

EnglandGermany
Overview
41%Possession59%
13Total Shots10
6Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots10
8On Target4
5Off Target4
0Blocked2
11Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
386Total Passes581
305Accurate Passes505
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: England 3–3 Germany

England and Germany drew 3-3 in UEFA Nations League on September 26, 2022.

Goals: İ. Gündoğan (52' pen), K. Havertz (67', 87'), L. Shaw (71'), M. Mount (75'), H. Kane (83' pen).

Germany controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.