England 2–0 Germany: Result & Stats

England

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Germany

H. Kane 86'

R. Sterling 75'

6/29/2021

Euro Championship · Round of 16Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

England59%

×Draw21%

Germany20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchGermany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.12

England

2.07

Germany

1.12

England creates 85% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

1.86

0.38

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

England

3.00

Germany

1.86

allows per match

England

0.38

Germany

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Germany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

England or draw

80%

England or Germany

79%

Draw or Germany

41%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

36%

Germany wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

87%

England 2+ goals

61%

England 3+ goals

34%

Germany 1+ goals

67%

Germany 2+ goals

31%

Germany 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

75%

Germany (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Germany away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 3.00 + Germany defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Germany attack 1.86 + England defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

England scores more

59%

level

21%

Germany scores more

20%

England at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jordan Pickford

England · G

7.7

Match Events

8'

25'

45'

68'

69'

72'

75'

77'

86'

87'

E. Can← M. Ginter

87'

L. Sané← R. Gosens

88'

J. Henderson← D. Rice

90+2'

J. Musiala← T. Müller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandGermany

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots9

3Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots9

4On Target3

1Off Target4

0Blocked2

4Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

446Total Passes524

372Accurate Passes439

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2