England 0–1 Denmark: Result & Stats

England

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Denmark

Christian Eriksen 35' (pen)

10/14/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 4Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

England40%

×Draw25%

Denmark35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchDenmark

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.39

England

1.51

Denmark

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.82

creates per match

1.50

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

England

1.82

Denmark

1.50

allows per match

England

1.27

Denmark

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Denmark+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Denmark →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

England or draw

65%

England or Denmark

75%

Draw or Denmark

60%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

20%

Denmark wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

78%

England 2+ goals

44%

England 3+ goals

19%

Denmark 1+ goals

75%

Denmark 2+ goals

40%

Denmark 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

54%

Denmark (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Denmark away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Denmark defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

Denmark attack 1.50 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

England scores more

40%

level

25%

Denmark scores more

35%

England at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Simon Kjær

Denmark · D

8.3

Match Events

5'

Harry Maguire

31'

Harry Maguire

31'

Harry Maguire

35'

Christian EriksenPenalty

36'

Tyrone Mings← Ainsley Maitland-Niles

37'

Pione Sisto← Kasper Dolberg

38'

Andreas Christensen

45+1'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

46'

Zanka← Andreas Christensen

46'

Joakim Maehle← Robert Skov

72'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin← Marcus Rashford

73'

Jadon Sancho← Mason Mount

74'

Jannik Vestergaard← Martin Braithwaite

76'

Jordan Henderson← Declan Rice

85'

Jordan Henderson

86'

Kalvin Phillips

88'

Mathias Jensen← Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

90+4'

Reece James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandDenmark

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots10

4Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target4

3Off Target5

7Blocked1

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

438Total Passes571

364Accurate Passes500

83%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

1Offsides0