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England vs Denmark — Friendlies 2026

England
England
CANC
00:00
Denmark
Denmark
3/31/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

England61%
×Draw24%
Denmark15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England
1.69
Denmark
0.70

England creates 141% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

England
1.71
Denmark
0.83

allows per match

England
0.57
Denmark
1.67

finishing

England+0.00on par
Denmark+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Denmark →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

England or draw
85%
England or Denmark
76%
Draw or Denmark
39%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+
34%
Denmark wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

England 1+ goals
82%
England 2+ goals
50%
England 3+ goals
24%
Denmark 1+ goals
50%
Denmark 2+ goals
16%
Denmark 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)
80%
Denmark (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

Denmark away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.71 + Denmark defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Denmark attack 0.83 + England defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

England scores more
61%
level
24%
Denmark scores more
15%

England at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: England host Denmark

March 31, 2020: England take on Denmark in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

England host Denmark at Wembley Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.