England U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
England U1939%
Spain U1935%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 20 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
England U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
England U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches
Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
England U19 attack 1.95 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.39
Spain U19 attack 2.17 + England U19 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
England U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Netherlands U19England U19
Italy U19
France U19
Denmark U19
Turkey U19
Austria U19
Ukraine U19
Croatia U19Spain U19
Czech Republic U19
Germany U19
Romania U19
Belgium U19
Serbia U19
Sweden U19
Norway U19
Portugal U19
Northern Ireland U19
Finland U19
Greece U19
Hungary U19
Kazakhstan U19
Kosovo U19
Switzerland U19
Latvia U19
Poland U19
Slovakia U19
Lithuania U19
Iceland U19
Luxembourg U19
Moldova U19
Slovenia U19
Belarus U19
Israel U19
Andorra U19
Albania U19
Republic of Ireland U19
Armenia U19
Scotland U19
Montenegro U19
North Macedonia U19
Wales U19
Bulgaria U19
Georgia U19
ABFF U19
Azerbaijan U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Estonia U19
Malta U19
Cyprus U19
Faroe Islands U19
San Marino U19
Gibraltar U19
Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
England U19 host Spain U19 on Saturday, 28 March 2026 at 11:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: England U19 1–3 Spain U19
Spain U19 beat England U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.
Goals: M. Castillo (9'), M. Cubo (41'), C. Ezenwata (45' pen), A. Ciria (81').