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England U19 vs Spain U19 — Friendlies 2018

England U19
England U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Spain U19
Spain U19
H. Armstrong 87'
S. Mheuka 50' (pen), 21'
A. Arnuncio 82' (pen)
A. Antanon 36'
S. Esteban 10'
9/6/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

England U1959%
×Draw17%
Spain U1924%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U19
3.08
Spain U19
1.96

England U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

England U19
4.50
Spain U19
2.67

allows per match

England U19
1.25
Spain U19
1.67

finishing

England U19+0.00on par
Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Spain U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

England U19 or draw
76%
England U19 or Spain U19
83%
Draw or Spain U19
41%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+
40%
Spain U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals
95%
England U19 2+ goals
81%
England U19 3+ goals
58%
Spain U19 1+ goals
86%
Spain U19 2+ goals
58%
Spain U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Spain U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 4.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 4.50 + Spain U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Spain U19 attack 2.67 + England U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

England U19 scores more
59%
level
17%
Spain U19 scores more
24%

England U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Esteban
21'
S. Mheuka
36'
A. Antanon
50'
S. MheukaPenalty
82'
A. ArnuncioPenalty
87'
H. Armstrong
England
Spain
Agyei William Kwabena Antwi
Manager: Agyei William Kwabena Antwi
Francisco Gallardo León
Manager: Francisco Gallardo León

Friendlies: England U19 3–3 Spain U19

England U19 and Spain U19 drew 3-3 in Friendlies on September 6, 2025.

Goals: S. Esteban (10'), S. Mheuka (21', 50' pen), A. Antanon (36'), A. Arnuncio (82' pen), H. Armstrong (87').