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England U19 vs Belgium U19 — Friendlies 2018

England U19
England U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
M. Moore 65', 58', 45'
S. Mheuka 36'
K. Furo 59'
10/11/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

England U1970%
×Draw15%
Belgium U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

England U19
3.42
Belgium U19
1.63

England U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

England U19
4.50
Belgium U19
2.00

allows per match

England U19
1.25
Belgium U19
2.33

finishing

England U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

England U19 or draw
84%
England U19 or Belgium U19
85%
Draw or Belgium U19
30%

Winning margin

England U19 wins by 2+
51%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

England U19 1+ goals
97%
England U19 2+ goals
85%
England U19 3+ goals
64%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
80%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
48%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

England U19 (draw refunded)
82%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England U19 at home — creates 4.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England U19 attack 4.50 + Belgium U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.42

Belgium U19 attack 2.00 + England U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

England U19 scores more
70%
level
15%
Belgium U19 scores more
16%

England U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "England U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
S. Mheuka
45'
M. Moore
58'
M. Moore
59'
K. Furo
65'
M. Moore
England
Belgium
Agyei William Kwabena Antwi
Manager: Agyei William Kwabena Antwi
S. Vermant
Manager: S. Vermant

Friendlies: England U19 4–1 Belgium U19

England U19 beat Belgium U19 4-1 in Friendlies on October 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Mheuka (36'), M. Moore (45', 58', 65'), K. Furo (59').