Energie Cottbus U19 3–2 Hallescher FC U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hallescher FC U19

M. Tautz 78'

Mohammad Moradi 76'

F. Heidrich 4' (pen)

T. Miller 49'

M. Glück 33' (pen)

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1953%

×Draw21%

Hallescher FC U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.45

Energie Cottbus U19

2.15

Hallescher FC U19

1.45

Energie Cottbus U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 37 away

1.80

creates per match

1.24

1.66

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.80

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.66

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

74%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Hallescher FC U19

79%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

47%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

32%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

88%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

63%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

36%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

77%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

42%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

26%

Energie Cottbus U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Energie Cottbus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. HeidrichPenalty

33'

M. GlückPenalty

49'

T. Miller

52'

F. Schubart← E. Kracht

52'

Mohammad Moradi← S. Zirarov

61'

J. Zaydan← J. Taubeneck

65'

J. Wagner← J. Dolla

65'

L. Hein← D. Zürn

76'

Mohammad Moradi

77'

J. Fazal← T. Martin

77'

M. Tautz← J. Gründker

77'

B. Serifoski← Mohamed Samadi

78'

M. Tautz

90'

F. Kuhnert← O. Pörschmann

90'

F. Selimi← R. Trinko

Energie

Hallescher

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Alain

52'▲F. Schubart←▼E. Kracht

52'▲Mohammad Moradi←▼S. Zirarov

61'▲J. Zaydan←▼J. Taubeneck

77'▲J. Fazal←▼T. Martin

77'▲M. Tautz←▼J. Gründker

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

SchubartMoradiZaydanFazalTautzWilkeTresper

Manager: T. Donath

65'▲J. Wagner←▼J. Dolla

65'▲L. Hein←▼D. Zürn

77'▲B. Serifoski←▼Mohamed Samadi

90'▲F. Kuhnert←▼O. Pörschmann

90'▲F. Selimi←▼R. Trinko

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

WagnerHeinSerifoskiKuhnertSelimiGoreSchlosser

Match Recap: Energie Cottbus U19 vs Hallescher FC U19

Energie Cottbus U19 beat Hallescher FC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: F. Heidrich (4' pen), M. Glück (33' pen), T. Miller (49'), Mohammad Moradi (76'), M. Tautz (78').

The match was played at Stadion an der Lipezker Straße in Cottbus.

Energie Cottbus U19 vs Hallescher FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Energie Cottbus U19 vs Hallescher FC U19