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Empoli vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
R. Krunić 87'
M. Zajc 85'
F. Caputo 72'
A. Donnarumma 59' (pen), 14'
G. Moncini 90+4'
L. Jallow 90+2'
N. Fazzi 76'
11/18/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 15Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Empoli52%
×Draw25%
Cesena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.63
Cesena
0.99

Empoli creates 65% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.69
Cesena
1.00

allows per match

Empoli
0.98
Cesena
1.56

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
77%
Empoli or Cesena
75%
Draw or Cesena
48%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
28%
Cesena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
80%
Empoli 2+ goals
48%
Empoli 3+ goals
22%
Cesena 1+ goals
63%
Cesena 2+ goals
26%
Cesena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
69%
Cesena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.98 · 58 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.69 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cesena attack 1.00 + Empoli defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Empoli scores more
52%
level
25%
Cesena scores more
23%

Empoli at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Lorenzo Lollo
14'
A. Donnarumma↳ J. Untersee
58'
Andrea Esposito
59'
E. Gliozzi← N. Dalmonte
59'
A. DonnarummaPenalty
61'
Moustapha Seck
66'
I. Bennacer← L. Lollo
67'
Michele Rigione
69'
S. Luperto← M. Seck
72'
F. Caputo↳ F. Veseli
76'
N. Fazzi↳ E. Gliozzi
81'
M. Zajc← A. Donnarumma
84'
A. Vita← R. Perticone
85'
M. Zajc
86'
G. Moncini← T. Kupisz
87'
R. Krunić↳ M. Zajc
90+2'
L. Jallow
90+4'
G. Moncini↳ M. Koné

Possession

47%Empoli

Shots

12Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliCesena
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots12
3Corners10
13Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots12
8On Target6
4Off Target6
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Empoli vs Cesena

Empoli beat Cesena 5-3 in Serie B on November 18, 2017.

Goals: A. Donnarumma (14', 59' pen), F. Caputo (72'), N. Fazzi (76'), M. Zajc (85'), R. Krunić (87'), L. Jallow (90+2'), G. Moncini (90+4').

Cesena controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.