Cesena 0–1 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Empoli

R. Ilie 47'

1/10/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena48%

×Draw24%

Empoli28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Cesena

1.69

Empoli

1.25

Cesena creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.75

creates per match

1.27

1.22

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Cesena

1.75

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Cesena

1.22

Empoli

1.64

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

72%

Cesena or Empoli

76%

Draw or Empoli

52%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

25%

Empoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

82%

Cesena 2+ goals

50%

Cesena 3+ goals

24%

Empoli 1+ goals

71%

Empoli 2+ goals

36%

Empoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

63%

Empoli (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Empoli attack 1.27 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cesena scores more

48%

level

24%

Empoli scores more

28%

Cesena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Castagnetti

Cesena · M

8.3

Match Events

16'

Gianluca Frabotta

29'

Matteo Francesconi

31'

Gabriele Guarino

47'

R. Ilie↳ A. Ghion

51'

Brando Moruzzi

53'

M. Castagnetti← M. Francesconi

68'

R. Celia← G. Frabotta

68'

S. Bastoni← D. Bisoli

68'

N. Haas← D. Degli Innocenti

68'

L. Ignacchiti← R. Ilie

77'

77'

79'

79'

83'

85'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaEmpoli

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots11

1.53Expected Goals (xG)1.98

12Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked3

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

567Total Passes306

480Accurate Passes229

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 0–1 Empoli

Empoli beat Cesena 1-0 in Serie B on January 10, 2026.

Goals: R. Ilie (47').

Cesena controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 0–1 Empoli