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Empoli vs Carrarese — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Carrarese
Carrarese
9/28/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Empoli53%
×Draw24%
Carrarese22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.68
Carrarese
0.99

Empoli creates 70% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.61
Carrarese
0.95

allows per match

Empoli
1.04
Carrarese
1.74

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Carrarese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
78%
Empoli or Carrarese
76%
Draw or Carrarese
47%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
29%
Carrarese wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
81%
Empoli 2+ goals
50%
Empoli 3+ goals
24%
Carrarese 1+ goals
63%
Carrarese 2+ goals
26%
Carrarese 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
71%
Carrarese (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Empoli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Empoli scores more
53%
level
24%
Carrarese scores more
22%

Empoli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli vs Carrarese

Empoli and Carrarese drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.