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Carrarese vs Empoli — Serie B 2020

Carrarese
Carrarese
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
F. Abiuso 76'
S. Zanon 62'
J. Illanes 28'
1/23/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese42%
×Draw27%
Empoli31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrarese
1.36
Empoli
1.11

Carrarese creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Carrarese
1.32
Empoli
1.30

allows per match

Carrarese
0.92
Empoli
1.40

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw
69%
Carrarese or Empoli
73%
Draw or Empoli
58%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+
20%
Empoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals
74%
Carrarese 2+ goals
39%
Carrarese 3+ goals
16%
Empoli 1+ goals
67%
Empoli 2+ goals
30%
Empoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)
58%
Empoli (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Empoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Empoli attack 1.30 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carrarese scores more
42%
level
27%
Empoli scores more
31%

Carrarese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. IllanesCarrareseCarrarese · D
9.2

Match Events

28'
J. Illanes↳ E. Zuelli
36'
Marco Nasti
46'
J. Ceesay← S. Elia
46'
L. Ignacchiti← R. Ilie
62'
S. Zanon
64'
M. Cicconi← N. Belloni
64'
F. Di Stefano← T. Rubino
67'
Filippo Oliana
69'
F. Ruggeri← F. Oliana
71'
T. Ebuehi← B. Moruzzi
71'
D. Degli Innocenti← A. Ghion
76'
F. Abiuso↳ N. Schiavi
78'
B. Popov← M. Nasti
80'
F. Melegoni← L. Hasa
80'
M. Finotto← F. Abiuso

Possession

54%Carrarese

Shots

11Carrarese

Pass accuracy

51%Carrarese

Statistics

CarrareseEmpoli
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots11
2.30Expected Goals (xG)1.28
2Corners5
11Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots11
6On Target4
2Off Target5
3Blocked2
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
492Total Passes402
419Accurate Passes326
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Serie B: Carrarese 3–0 Empoli

Carrarese beat Empoli 3-0 in Serie B on January 23, 2026.

Goals: J. Illanes (28'), S. Zanon (62'), F. Abiuso (76').

Carrarese controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.