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Empoli vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
M. Zajc 39'
A. D'Angelo 90+5'
2/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 28Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Empoli63%
×Draw23%
Avellino14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.77
Avellino
0.70

Empoli creates 153% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.72
Avellino
0.48

allows per match

Empoli
0.92
Avellino
1.82

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less
Avellino+0.02on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
86%
Empoli or Avellino
77%
Draw or Avellino
37%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
37%
Avellino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
83%
Empoli 2+ goals
53%
Empoli 3+ goals
26%
Avellino 1+ goals
50%
Avellino 2+ goals
16%
Avellino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
81%
Avellino (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Avellino defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Avellino attack 0.48 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Empoli scores more
63%
level
23%
Avellino scores more
14%

Empoli at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Angelo D'Angelo
39'
M. Zajc↳ G. Di Lorenzo
54'
S. Molina← S. Bidaoui
59'
Carlo De Risio
65'
Asencio← B. Cabezas
69'
F. Moretti← C. De Risio
76'
M. Brighi← I. Bennacer
83'
L. Lollo← R. Krunić
87'
H. Traorè← A. Donnarumma
90'
Angelo D'Angelo
90'
Angelo D'Angelo
90+5'
A. D'Angelo↳ M. Ardemagni

Possession

58%Empoli

Shots

11Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliAvellino
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots1
6Corners4
16Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots1
4On Target1
7Off Target0
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Empoli vs Avellino

Empoli and Avellino drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 27, 2018.

Goals: M. Zajc (39'), A. D'Angelo (90+5').

Empoli controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 1.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.