Avellino 0–3 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Empoli

P. Pellegri 90'

E. Saporiti 45'

S. Elia 17'

11/22/2025

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino46%

×Draw25%

Empoli29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

Avellino

1.58

Empoli

1.21

Avellino creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Avellino

1.53

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Avellino

1.15

Empoli

1.64

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.24scores less

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

71%

Avellino or Empoli

75%

Draw or Empoli

54%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

23%

Empoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

79%

Avellino 2+ goals

47%

Avellino 3+ goals

21%

Empoli 1+ goals

70%

Empoli 2+ goals

34%

Empoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

61%

Empoli (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.53 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Empoli attack 1.27 + Avellino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avellino scores more

46%

level

25%

Empoli scores more

29%

Avellino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Elia

Empoli · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

A. Milani← R. Russo

17'

S. Elia↳ B. Moruzzi

22'

Duccio Degli Innocenti

30'

Tommaso Cancellotti

35'

Gerard Yepes

41'

Alessandro Fontanarosa

45'

E. Saporiti

46'

M. Palumbo← T. Cancellotti

46'

P. Enrici← A. Fontanarosa

58'

C. Patierno← M. Besaggio

61'

R. Ilie← S. Shpendi

61'

A. Ghion← D. Degli Innocenti

70'

P. Pellegri← M. Nasti

70'

N. Haas← G. Yepes

78'

82'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoEmpoli

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots13

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.47

6Corners4

8Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

4Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

520Total Passes375

433Accurate Passes288

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Serie B: Avellino 0–3 Empoli

Empoli beat Avellino 3-0 in Serie B on November 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Elia (17'), E. Saporiti (45'), P. Pellegri (90').

Avellino controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.

Avellino vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avellino 0–3 Empoli