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Empoli vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
12/22/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 19Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli29%
×Draw24%
AC Milan47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.30
AC Milan
1.70

AC Milan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 131 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.46
AC Milan
1.70

allows per match

Empoli
1.70
AC Milan
1.15

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
53%
Empoli or AC Milan
76%
Draw or AC Milan
71%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
13%
AC Milan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
73%
Empoli 2+ goals
37%
Empoli 3+ goals
14%
AC Milan 1+ goals
82%
AC Milan 2+ goals
51%
AC Milan 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
39%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.46 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

AC Milan attack 1.70 + Empoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Empoli scores more
29%
level
24%
AC Milan scores more
47%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Empoli 4-2 in Serie A on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.