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AC Milan vs Empoli — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
2/22/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 25San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AC Milan52%
×Draw25%
Empoli23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.62
Empoli
0.98

AC Milan creates 65% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 57 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.62
Empoli
0.96

allows per match

AC Milan
1.00
Empoli
1.61

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
77%
AC Milan or Empoli
75%
Draw or Empoli
48%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
28%
Empoli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
80%
AC Milan 2+ goals
48%
AC Milan 3+ goals
22%
Empoli 1+ goals
62%
Empoli 2+ goals
26%
Empoli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
70%
Empoli (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.62 + Empoli defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Empoli attack 0.96 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AC Milan scores more
52%
level
25%
Empoli scores more
23%

AC Milan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Empoli

AC Milan beat Empoli 3-0 in Serie A on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.