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Empoli vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
9/27/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 6Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Empoli30%
×Draw27%
AC Milan43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.10
AC Milan
1.36

AC Milan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Empoli
0.97
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Empoli
1.23
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Empoli-0.54scores less
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
57%
Empoli or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
70%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
12%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
67%
Empoli 2+ goals
30%
Empoli 3+ goals
10%
AC Milan 1+ goals
74%
AC Milan 2+ goals
39%
AC Milan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
41%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.23 · 7 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 0.97 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Empoli defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Empoli scores more
30%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
43%

AC Milan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Empoli 1–1 AC Milan

Empoli and AC Milan drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 27, 2018.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.