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Emelec vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
Preview
20:00
Manta FC
Manta FC
9/6/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 29Estadio George Capwell
Big match
57%
Emelec
model favours
57%25%18%

Manta FC score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Emelec57%
×Draw25%
Manta FC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.60
Manta FC
0.79

Emelec creates 103% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 42 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Manta FC
0.76

allows per match

Emelec
0.82
Manta FC
1.74

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
82%
Emelec or Manta FC
75%
Draw or Manta FC
43%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
30%
Manta FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
80%
Emelec 2+ goals
47%
Emelec 3+ goals
22%
Manta FC 1+ goals
55%
Manta FC 2+ goals
19%
Manta FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
75%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Manta FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Manta FC attack 0.76 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Emelec scores more
57%
level
25%
Manta FC scores more
18%

Emelec at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 31% of Manta FC’s matches
  • Manta FC fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Emelec outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Emelec
Balanced
Manta FC
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession45%
78%Pass accuracy71%
9.2Shots7.7
0.75xGBiggest gap1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
EmelecManta FC

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Emelec
3
Draws
0
Manta FC
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
0–04–21–12–24–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Emelec
WDDWW
FC
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Emelec host Manta FC

September 6, 2026: Emelec take on Manta FC in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Emelec host Manta FC at Estadio George Capwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.