Emelec 0–0 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Emelec

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gualaceo SC

6/13/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emelec60%

×Draw24%

Gualaceo SC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.71

Emelec

1.64

Gualaceo SC

0.71

Emelec creates 131% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 30 away

1.47

creates per match

0.60

0.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Gualaceo SC

0.60

allows per match

Emelec

0.83

Gualaceo SC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

84%

Emelec or Gualaceo SC

76%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

40%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

33%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

81%

Emelec 2+ goals

49%

Emelec 3+ goals

23%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

51%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

16%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

79%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Emelec scores more

60%

level

24%

Gualaceo SC scores more

16%

Emelec at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff