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Emelec vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
S. Rodríguez 33' (pen)
M. Quiroga 27'
R. Farías 53'
8/1/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Reales Tamarindos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emelec60%
×Draw24%
Gualaceo SC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.64
Gualaceo SC
0.71

Emelec creates 131% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 30 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Gualaceo SC
0.60

allows per match

Emelec
0.83
Gualaceo SC
1.80

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
84%
Emelec or Gualaceo SC
76%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
40%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
33%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
81%
Emelec 2+ goals
49%
Emelec 3+ goals
23%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
51%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
16%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
79%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Emelec scores more
60%
level
24%
Gualaceo SC scores more
16%

Emelec at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Quiroga↳ D. García
32'
Richard Farias
33'
S. RodríguezPenalty
52'
Edwin Mesa
53'
R. Farías↳ J. Góngora
65'
Pedro Ortiz
65'
D. Ávila← H. Patta
66'
J. Chalá← A. Zapata
69'
Marlon Mejía
80'
A. Cabeza← B. Carabalí
80'
E. Lastre← M. Quiroga
85'
R. Garcés← D. García

Possession

55%Emelec

Shots

5Emelec

Statistics

EmelecGualaceo
Overview
55%Possession45%
5Total Shots9
6Corners2
19Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots9
3On Target5
2Off Target4
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Liga Pro: Emelec 2–1 Gualaceo SC

Emelec beat Gualaceo SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on August 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Quiroga (27'), S. Rodríguez (33' pen), R. Farías (53').

Emelec controlled possession (55%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos in Portoviejo.