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Emelec vs Deportivo Tachira FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Emelec
Emelec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
J. Rojas 11'
Y. Chacón 4'
4/15/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec70%
×Draw18%
Deportivo Tachira FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
2.29
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.82

Emelec creates 179% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Emelec
2.00
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.64

allows per match

Emelec
1.00
Deportivo Tachira FC
2.57

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
88%
Emelec or Deportivo Tachira FC
82%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
30%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
47%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
90%
Emelec 2+ goals
66%
Emelec 3+ goals
40%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
85%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 2.00 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.64 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Emelec scores more
70%
level
18%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
12%

Emelec at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. CabezaEmelecEmelec · F
7.5

Match Events

4'
Y. Chacón↳ A. Uribe
7'
Alejandro Cabeza
11'
J. Rojas↳ A. Cabeza
16'
Joao Rojas
18'
B. Carabalí← M. Quiroga
61'
D. Vera← R. Caicedo
61'
J. Chalá← A. Zapata
72'
Jose Luis Marrufo
73'
R. Simisterra← A. Uribe
74'
J. Cevallos← S. Rodríguez
75'
J. Rodríguez← B. Pittón
75'
N. Hernández← Y. Chacón
76'
Jackson Rodríguez
90+2'
J. Colina← R. Garcés

Possession

59%Emelec

Shots

13Emelec

Pass accuracy

54%Emelec

Statistics

EmelecDeportivo
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots16
6Corners5
9Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots16
3On Target7
8Off Target5
2Blocked4
5Inside Box9
8Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
442Total Passes299
352Accurate Passes206
80%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Emelec 1–1 Deportivo Tachira FC

Emelec and Deportivo Tachira FC drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 15, 2022.

Goals: Y. Chacón (4'), J. Rojas (11').

Emelec controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio George Capwell in Guayaquil.