Deportivo Tachira FC 1–4 Emelec: Result & Stats

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Emelec

A. Uribe 37'

A. Cabeza 74'

S. Rodríguez 59' (pen), 11', 3'

5/3/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC31%

×Draw26%

Emelec43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.44

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.20

Emelec

1.44

Emelec creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

1.17

1.71

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.57

Emelec

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.71

Emelec

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

57%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

13%

Emelec wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

12%

Emelec 1+ goals

76%

Emelec 2+ goals

42%

Emelec 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

42%

Emelec (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.57 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Emelec attack 1.17 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

31%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

43%

Emelec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Rodríguez

Emelec · M

9.9

Match Events

3'

S. Rodríguez↳ A. Zapata

11'

37'

45+2'

45+1'

59'

S. RodríguezPenalty

68'

R. Hernández← R. Garcés

74'

E. Farías← A. Uribe

74'

M. Fernández← N. Hernández

74'

A. Cabeza↳ A. Zapata

77'

R. Garcés← J. Cevallos

82'

Maurice Cova

85'

E. Lastre← A. Cabeza

86'

R. Arace← R. Figueroa

89'

Roberto Garcés

90+1'

D. Vera← A. Zapata

90'

M. Quiroga← J. Rojas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoEmelec

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots13

9Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target6

6Off Target2

1Blocked5

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

337Total Passes475

245Accurate Passes376

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Emelec

Emelec beat Deportivo Tachira FC 4-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 3, 2022.

Goals: S. Rodríguez (3', 11', 59' pen), A. Uribe (37'), A. Cabeza (74').

Emelec controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Emelec