Emelec 2–2 Deportivo Lara: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Lara

Brayan Angulo 74', 67'

Freddy Vargas 89'

Lorenzo Frutos 51' (pen)

4/12/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Emelec71%

×Draw18%

Deportivo Lara11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Lara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.80

Emelec

2.30

Deportivo Lara

0.80

Emelec creates 187% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.60

1.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Emelec

2.00

Deportivo Lara

0.60

allows per match

Emelec

1.00

Deportivo Lara

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Deportivo Lara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

89%

Emelec or Deportivo Lara

82%

Draw or Deportivo Lara

29%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

47%

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

90%

Emelec 2+ goals

67%

Emelec 3+ goals

40%

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Lara 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Lara 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

86%

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Deportivo Lara away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 2.00 + Deportivo Lara defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Deportivo Lara attack 0.60 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Emelec scores more

71%

level

18%

Deportivo Lara scores more

11%

Emelec at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Brayan Angulo

Emelec · F

8.2

Match Events

24'

Jaime Moreno

42'

Jordan Jaime

45'

Jesus Bueno

51'

Lorenzo FrutosPenalty

60'

Gabriel Cortez← Pedro Quiñonez

67'

Brayan Angulo

69'

Lorenzo Frutos← Lorenzo Frutos

74'

Brayan Angulo↳ Billy Arce

75'

Brayan Angulo

76'

Joel Lopez Pisano

77'

Marlon Mejía← Leandro Vega

77'

Jairo Jose Otero Vasquez← Jesus Bueno

83'

Wilmer Godoy← Joel Lopez Pisano

83'

Freddy Vargas← Gonzalo Di Renzo

88'

88'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

23Total Shots16

14Corners2

20Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots16

9On Target7

12Off Target6

2Blocked3

11Inside Box8

12Outside Box8

Passing

59%Possession41%

366Total Passes271

267Accurate Passes172

73%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

20Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0